Daniel J Becker, Gregory F Albery, Anna R Sjodin, Timothée Poisot, Laura M Bergner, Binqi Chen, Lily E Cohen, Tad A Dallas, Evan A Eskew, Anna C Fagre, Maxwell J Farrell, Sarah Guth, Barbara A Han, Nancy B Simmons, Michiel Stock, Emma C Teeling, Colin J Carlson

Jan 10, 2022
The Lancet. Microbe

Despite the global investment in One Health disease surveillance, it remains difficult and costly to identify and monitor the wildlife reservoirs of novel zoonotic viruses. Statistical models can guide sampling target prioritisation, but the predictions from any given model might be highly uncertain; moreover, systematic model validation is rare, and the drivers of model performance are consequently under documented. Here, we use the bat hosts of betacoronaviruses as a case study for the data driven process of comparing and validating predictive models of probable reservoir hosts.

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